While the H12N1 Swine Flu continues to spread in the UK the government continues floundering in it’s response. There appears to be complete confusion on the issue of Tamiflu, the antiviral drug used to “treat the flu.”  Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson appears ready to distribute vouchers to anyone off the Internet or otherwise, just days after giving doctors permission to not prescribe Tamiflu if their phone rings too much.

Because patients must be treated with 48 hours after the onset of symptoms there is limited usefulness for the drug. It also does not cure the flu, it only shortens the duration by 1-2 days. While some projections are that widespread distribution of Tamiflu to the general population would save millions of lives, the reality is no one knows if Tamiflu would be effective at all  with this type of distribution. It is more likely to create widespread resistance and render Tamiflu a useless drug.  Tamiflu is a tremendous asset for a pandemic but it should be reserved for susceptible populations and specific situations and remain under the control of doctors, not the government. Isolation and preventative measures are our front line defense against the pandemic, not handing out Tamiflu to everyone.

A case in point is the Air Force Academy outbreak of Swine Flu. It is early and Tamiflu could be administered to the entire population since they live in close quarters and could be sequestered short term in the contained environment of the Academy. Or they could be more conservative and administer Tamiflu to anyone with a history of respiratory or immune problems making them a higher risk for serious complications, and restrict the campus short term. Letting everyone in Colorado Springs have a free voucher for Tamiflu would be irresponsible.

Tamiflu is not a panacea and using it as one will probably render it useless for the people who need it most. Lets hope the UK does not create a resitant strain of flu via massive distribution of vouchers.

With the H1N1 Swine Flu in 74 countries I expect to see an official pandemic declared by the WHO by the end of next week. With the moderate nature of the H1N1 flu to date it will not change much other than headlines.

A mite over reaction from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd of Australia? The 14th confirmed case of H1N1 Swine Flu has him in a call to arms to fight the Pandemic. Every Year in Australia:

• Lightening kills 5-10 people per year and injures about 100.
• Over 1000 people are killed in motor vehicle accidents
• Over 200 People are killed walking down the street by cars
• About 30 bicyclists are killed in accidents
• Tobacco related deaths exceed 20,000
• Fatalities from heat are over 20
• Boating Deaths Are 40-50
• Sharks attack 60-70 people

Be Wise and Use Precautions but so far this appears to be an overreaction.

H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) has possibly spread in a community based transmission from person to person in Japan with over 100 cases now. Since this is different from infections resulting from travel to the U.S or Mexico it may result in elevating the status to a  world pandemic. The H1N1 Flu is still considered mild in severity, even if it becomes labeled a pandemic.